CommonApp and NACAC Public Datasets for Admissions Simulation

data_commonapp_nacac.md

CommonApp and NACAC Public Datasets for Admissions Simulation

CommonApp Annual Reports

End-of-Season Reports (Primary Publication)

CommonApp publishes annual "End-of-Season Reports" tracking first-year application trends across all ~1,100 member institutions. These are the most comprehensive publicly available aggregate datasets on college applications.

URLs:

Years available: 2014-15 through 2024-25 (10 seasons of trend data)

Variables covered:

  • Total unique applicants (1,497,000+ in 2024-25; 1,425,083 in 2023-24)

  • Total applications submitted (10,193,579 in 2024-25; 9,447,544 in 2023-24)

  • Applications per applicant (6.80 in 2024-25; 6.64 in 2023-24; 4.63 in 2013-14)

  • Number of member institutions (1,097 in 2024-25; 1,074 in 2023-24)

  • Breakdowns by sex/gender (female 821,682 / male 675,519 / X 998 in 2024-25)

  • Breakdowns by race/ethnicity (White 45.7%, Black 14%, Latino/Hispanic growing 15% YoY)

  • First-generation status (7% growth YoY; doubled since 2014-15)

  • Fee waiver eligibility as income proxy (9% growth vs 2% for non-fee-waiver)

  • Below-median vs above-median income ZIP code (8% vs lower growth)

  • Geographic distribution by state (top 15 states listed)

  • International vs domestic applicant trends

  • Test score reporting rates (majority now not reporting)

Granularity: Aggregate across all CommonApp members. NOT broken down by individual college. Breakdowns by demographics, geography, institution type (public/private, selectivity band).

Deadline Update Reports (Intra-Season Snapshots)

Published at November 1, December 1, January 1, and March 1 deadlines during each cycle.

URLs (2024-25 cycle examples):

Variables: Same as end-of-season but cumulative through each deadline date; useful for tracking ED/EA vs RD volume splits.

State-Level Reports

CommonApp publishes state-specific application data at https://www.commonapp.org/statereports/

Variables: Application volumes, growth rates, demographic breakdowns at the state level. Available for all 50 states.

CommonApp Research Publications

Research Briefs (Topical Deep-Dives)

CommonApp publishes focused research briefs on specific topics using their de-identified platform data.

Key publications:

  1. Applications Per Applicant (December 2022)

  2. URL: https://www.commonapp.org/files/Common-App-Brief-First-Year-Applications-Per-Applicant.pdf

  3. Data: Historical trend in apps/applicant by demographics, school type, selectivity

  4. Key finding: Average increased from 4.63 (2013-14) to 6.80 (2024-25)

  5. Early Admission Deadlines: Student Trends and Implications (July 2023)

  6. URL: https://www.commonapp.org/files/common-app-report-early-admission-student-trends.pdf

  7. Data: ED/EA application patterns by demographics and community advantage

  8. Key finding: ED/EA applicants skew toward more advantaged communities (higher income, higher parental education)

  9. Application Trends Following End of Race-Conscious Admissions (June 2024)

  10. URL: https://www.commonapp.org/files/Common-App-Race-Ethnicity-SCOTUS-2024.pdf

  11. Data: 5-year trends in race/ethnicity self-reporting and application behavior pre/post SFFA v. Harvard

  12. Key finding: No meaningful deviation in racial/ethnic self-identification or application behavior in first post-SCOTUS cycle

  13. First-Generation Status in Context (2023-24)

  14. URL: https://www.commonapp.org/files/23-24_Common-App-Brief-First-Generation-Part-2.pdf

  15. Data: 30 combinations of parental education mapped to enrollment/completion outcomes

  16. Key finding: Students with at least one indicator of low-income + first-gen status = 21-26% of domestic applicants

  17. Highlighting Independent Students (April 2025)

  18. URL: https://www.commonapp.org/files/DAR/Common-App-Highlighting-Independent-Students.pdf

  19. Data: Transfer applicant behaviors, prior coursework, proximity effects

Research Collaboration Program (Restricted Access)

CommonApp maintains a de-identified research dataset available to qualified researchers through a formal proposal process.

Call for proposals:

Dataset scope:

  • ~1.3 million domestic students per year

  • 18+ million course-taking records

  • Full de-identification (students, recommenders, institutions, high schools)

  • Data dictionary available to approved researchers

  • Results must be published within 2 years

Access: Requires PI with published social science research track record. NOT publicly downloadable.

NACAC Datasets

State of College Admission Report

The flagship NACAC publication, published annually since ~2004. Redesigned in 2023 as an interactive online dashboard.

URL: https://www.nacacnet.org/state-of-college-admission-report/

Report structure (4 chapters):

  1. College Applications (volumes, acceptance rates, enrollment)
  2. Recruitment and Yield Strategies
  3. Factors in Admission Decisions
  4. Secondary School Counseling

Most recent full PDF report: 2019 edition

Survey methodology: Two annual surveys:

  • Admission Trends Survey: 447 responses from U.S. four-year colleges (2019); 185 NACAC member institutions (2023)

  • Counseling Trends Survey: 2,345 responses from secondary school counselors (2019)

Interactive Dashboard Topics (2023 Redesign)

Published as separate online modules (NACAC membership may be required for full access):

  1. School Counseling: Caseloads and Responsibilities (June 2023)
  2. Factors in the Admission Decision (August 2023)
  3. Selectivity: Acceptance Rates at 4-Year Colleges (December 2023)
  4. Trends in Yield Rates at Four-Year Colleges (December 2023)
  5. Student Recruitment Strategies (upcoming)
  6. Early Decision/Action and Wait Lists (upcoming)

Downloadable fact sheets:

NACAC Factor Importance Data (Fall 2023 Admission Cycle)

From the NACAC College Admission Process Survey of 185 member institutions:

Factor Considerable Moderate Combined
Grades in All Courses 74.1% 18.9% 93.0%
Grades in College Prep Courses 76.8% 15.1% 91.9%
Strength of Curriculum 63.8% 22.7% 86.5%
Positive Character Attributes 28.3% 37.5% 65.8%
Essays/Writing Samples 18.9% 37.3% 56.2%
Counselor Recommendation 11.9% 40.0% 51.9%
Teacher Recommendation 10.8% 40.5% 51.3%
Extracurricular Activities 6.5% 44.3% 50.8%
Student's Demonstrated Interest 15.7% 27.6% 43.3%
Work Experience 2.2% 30.8% 33.0%
SAT/ACT Scores 4.9% 25.4% 30.3%
Class Rank 5.5% 22.4% 27.9%
AP/IB Exam Scores 1.1% 22.2% 23.3%
Portfolio 4.9% 10.8% 15.7%
Interview 4.3% 8.6% 12.9%
State Graduation Exam Scores 1.6% 6.5% 8.1%

Source: NACAC College Admission Process Survey, Fall 2023 cycle (n=185 institutions) Full survey report: https://www.nacacnet.org/wp-content/uploads/NACAC-College-Admission-Process-Research_FINAL.pdf

Selectivity Data

NACAC reports average acceptance rates by institution type (2022-23 cycle):

  • Overall four-year not-for-profit: 73%

  • Public colleges: 78%

  • Private colleges: 70%

Early Decision/Action Data (from NACAC surveys)

  • 2024-25 cycle: EA applications up 17%, ED applications up 4% year-over-year

  • Highly selective schools with restored test requirements saw declines (Brown: -1,200 ED apps; Yale: -14% SCEA)

  • Schools like Middlebury fill 60% of class through ED; Grinnell 67%

Additional NACAC Research

Data Gaps

What CommonApp Does NOT Publish Publicly

  1. Institution-level data -- No public breakdown of applications, admits, or enrolls by individual college. All data is aggregate across member institutions or by institution-type bands (selectivity, public/private, size).
  2. High school-to-college linkage -- No public data connecting specific high schools to specific colleges. The research collaboration dataset is de-identified for high schools.
  3. Acceptance rates by institution -- CommonApp does not publish per-college acceptance rates. Must be sourced from individual college Common Data Sets or IPEDS.
  4. Hook-level data -- No public data on legacy, donor, athlete, or recruited status admission rates. This data exists within colleges but is not in CommonApp's platform.
  5. Yield rates -- CommonApp tracks applications but not enrollment decisions (those happen outside the platform).
  6. Financial aid impact -- No data on aid packages or their influence on enrollment decisions.

What NACAC Does NOT Publish Publicly

  1. Raw survey microdata -- Only aggregate percentages from their surveys are published; no institution-level responses.
  2. Longitudinal institution-level panels -- The dashboard provides aggregate trends, not trackable institution data over time.
  3. Student-level data -- NACAC surveys institutions and counselors, not students directly.
  4. Complete historical data series -- The 2023 redesign from PDF to dashboard makes historical comparison harder; the 2019 PDF was the last comprehensive static report.

Critical Missing Datasets for Simulation

  • ED/EA acceptance rate differentials by selectivity tier -- Must be sourced from individual college CDS or press releases, not available in aggregate from CommonApp or NACAC

  • Hook multipliers (legacy, athlete, donor) -- Only available from lawsuit discovery (Harvard/UNC) or individual college disclosures

  • High school feeder patterns -- Not publicly available from either source; must be constructed from high school profile data (Naviance, school counselor reports)

  • Student decision models (where students enroll given multiple acceptances) -- Not captured by CommonApp (only applications); NACAC yield data is aggregate only

Most Useful for Simulation Calibration

Tier 1: Directly Calibrate Simulation Parameters

Data Point Source Simulation Use
Applications per applicant (6.80 avg) CommonApp End-of-Season Calibrate student application list length
Apps/applicant by demographics CommonApp research brief Vary list length by student type
Factor importance weights (16 factors) NACAC 2023 survey table Calibrate admission scoring formula weights
Test score reporting rates (<50%) CommonApp deadline reports Model test-optional behavior
ED/EA demographic skew CommonApp early admission brief Model who applies ED vs EA vs RD
Average acceptance rate by institution type NACAC selectivity dashboard Validate overall accept rates
Growth rates by race/ethnicity CommonApp End-of-Season Calibrate demographic distribution of applicants

Tier 2: Validate Simulation Outputs

Data Point Source Simulation Use
First-gen proportion (21-26% of applicants) CommonApp first-gen brief Validate student population composition
Fee waiver growth (196% since 2014-15) CommonApp End-of-Season Track low-income access trends
State-level application volumes CommonApp state reports Geographic distribution validation
Yield rate trends NACAC yield dashboard Validate enrollment outcomes
Post-SCOTUS race/ethnicity trends CommonApp SCOTUS brief Validate demographic shift modeling

Tier 3: Inform Model Design Decisions

Data Point Source Simulation Use
ED fills 50-67% of class at selective schools News reports / college disclosures Set ED class-fill percentages
EA up 17%, ED up 4% (2024-25) NACAC / news reports Early round volume calibration
Essays = 56% considerable+moderate importance NACAC factor table Justify essay component in scoring
Extracurriculars = 50.8% combined importance NACAC factor table Justify EC component in scoring
SAT/ACT = 30.3% combined importance (post-COVID) NACAC factor table Reduce test weight in scoring model

Key Takeaway for the Simulation

The most actionable publicly available data for calibrating the college-sim engine:

  1. NACAC 16-factor importance table -- directly maps to the simulation's scoring formula (GPA/curriculum weight >> essays/character > EC/recommendations >> test scores in the post-COVID era)
  2. CommonApp applications-per-applicant data (6.80 mean, by demographics) -- calibrates how many schools each student agent applies to
  3. CommonApp ED/EA demographic analysis -- calibrates which student types use which admission rounds
  4. CommonApp demographic growth trends -- calibrates the population generator's race/ethnicity and SES distributions
  5. Individual college CDS data (see separate research docs) remains essential for per-institution acceptance rates, yield, and SAT/GPA ranges -- CommonApp and NACAC do not provide this level of granularity