High School to College Enrollment: Feeder School Data Sources

data_feeder_schools.md

High School to College Enrollment: Feeder School Data Sources

National Student Clearinghouse

The National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) is the most comprehensive source of student-level postsecondary enrollment data in the U.S., covering ~3,600 institutions enrolling 97%+ of all students.

What's Publicly Available

• High School Benchmarks Report: Annual report on HS graduates' postsecondary enrollment, persistence, and completion. Tracks first-fall college enrollment by graduating class. Available as downloadable data dashboards.

• Current Term Enrollment Estimates: Aggregate enrollment trends released 3x/year (November preliminary, January and June comprehensive).

• Research Reports: Published analyses on enrollment patterns, persistence, transfer rates.

What's NOT Publicly Available

• StudentTracker: The core product that links individual HS students to their college enrollment outcomes. Available only to subscribing high schools and districts — not to the general public. Schools upload student rosters and receive back which colleges their graduates enrolled in.

• Student-level microdata: Not available for download. Researchers can apply for access through the NSC Research Center.

Simulation Relevance

NSC aggregate reports provide national baselines (e.g., what % of HS grads enroll in 4-year vs 2-year, persistence rates by school type) but do NOT provide school-to-school linkage data publicly. The HS-to-college mapping lives inside StudentTracker, which is paywalled.

State-Level Data Sources

Several states publish high-school-level college-going rates that can serve as proxies for feeder patterns.

California Department of Education (CDE)

• College-Going Rate (CGR) Data: Downloadable CSV files showing college-going rates at state, county, district, and individual school level, disaggregated by race/ethnicity and student group.

• 12-Month CGR Files: Track % of HS completers enrolling in postsecondary within 12 months.

• 16-Month CGR Files: Extended tracking window.

• Limitation: Shows aggregate college-going rates per HS, but does NOT break down which specific colleges students enrolled in.

Texas Education Agency (TEA)

• Student Data: Statewide enrollment by grade, race/ethnicity, gender, economic status, program participation.

• College-going data available through TEA's accountability system but less granular than California's.

Illinois

• NCES Digest State Dashboard for Illinois provides aggregate postsecondary enrollment data.

Key Limitation

State databases generally track whether HS graduates go to college, not which specific college. The HS-to-specific-college linkage requires NSC StudentTracker or institution-specific data.

Research Papers with Feeder Data

Chetty, Deming, Friedman (2023) — "Diversifying Society's Leaders?"

• NBER Working Paper 31492 | Full PDF

• Used anonymized admissions data from Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League + Stanford, MIT, Duke, UChicago) linked to tax records and SAT/ACT scores.

• Key findings on HS type:

• Children from top-1% families are 2x as likely to attend Ivy-Plus as middle-class students with comparable test scores.

• The rich-kid advantage in non-academic ratings is "almost entirely driven by the fact that they are much more likely to attend elite private high schools."

• Three drivers of high-income admissions advantage: (1) legacy preferences, (2) non-academic credential weighting, (3) athletic recruitment.

• Children from high-income families have no admissions advantage at flagship public colleges.

• Data availability: Opportunity Insights data portal provides downloadable CSV files with college mobility statistics by institution and birth cohort.

Arcidiacono, Kinsler, Ransom — "Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard"

• NBER Working Paper 26316 | PDF

• Used Harvard admissions microdata from the SFFA v. Harvard trial (Classes of 2014-2019).

• Key findings:

• 43% of white admits were ALDCs (Athletes, Legacies, Dean's list, Children of faculty/staff).

• ~75% of ALDC admits would have been rejected without those preferences.

• 68%+ of recruited athletes, legacies, and dean's list applicants are white vs. <41% of typical applicants.

• Admit rates: athletes 86%, legacy 33%, dean's list 42%, faculty children 47% — vs. ~6% overall.

• Data: Harvard admissions data includes demographic, geographic, academic measures, internal Harvard ratings (academic, extracurricular, athletic, personal), plus HS counselor/teacher letter ratings. Data is not publicly downloadable — available only through court records.

Arcidiacono — "What the SFFA Cases Reveal About Racial Preferences"

• PDF

• Companion analysis of the SFFA trial data showing admit rate differentials by race.

• African American applicants' admit rates ~4x higher than comparable white applicants; Hispanic applicants ~2.4x.

Chetty et al. — "Mobility Report Cards" (2017)

• Paper | Data

• Children with parents in top 1% are 77x more likely to attend Ivy-Plus than children from bottom 20%.

• Income segregation across colleges comparable to income segregation across census tracts.

• Downloadable data: College-level mobility statistics (parent income distributions, student earnings outcomes) available as CSV at opportunityinsights.org/data.

Mulhern — "Changing College Choices with Personalized Admissions Information at Scale"

• Paper | PNAS version

• Uses Naviance data to study how showing HS students past admission outcomes from their own school affects application behavior.

• Demonstrates that personalized HS-to-college outcome data reduces undermatching.

Glasener — "Shaping Elite College Pathways: Mapping the Field of Feeder Schools"

• University of Michigan dissertation

• Systematic mapping of feeder school networks to elite colleges.

Public Datasets

Opportunity Insights (Best Available)

• URL: opportunityinsights.org/data

• What's there: College-level data on parent income distributions, student earnings, mobility rates. Linkable to IPEDS college identifiers.

• Format: CSV downloads with readme documentation.

• Limitation: College-level aggregates, not HS-to-college linkage. But provides the income/mobility context that shapes feeder dynamics.

IPEDS (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System)

• URL: nces.ed.gov/ipeds

• What's there: Annual survey data from every Title IV institution — enrollment, graduation rates, finances, student demographics. 12 interrelated survey components.

• Limitation: College-side data only. No HS origin information.

College Scorecard

• URL: collegescorecard.ed.gov/data

• What's there: Institution-level and field-of-study-level data going back to 1997. Includes earnings outcomes, debt, completion rates.

• Format: Downloadable CSV files.

• Limitation: No HS-to-college linkage.

Common Data Set (CDS)

• URL: commondataset.org

• What's there: Standardized self-reported data from colleges including acceptance rates, enrolled student profiles (SAT/ACT ranges, GPA distributions), financial aid.

• Limitation: College-reported aggregates. No HS-level breakdown.

Kaggle Datasets

Note: None of the Kaggle datasets provide direct HS-to-college linkage. They are primarily college-side or student-attribute datasets.

GitHub Repositories

• US Colleges Analysis — Kaggle-derived college admissions analysis

• College Scorecard Analysis — Visualization of DOE College Scorecard data

• No public GitHub repos found with direct feeder school data.

Naviance (Restricted)

• Used by ~10,000+ high schools. Contains HS-specific scattergrams (GPA/test scores vs. admit/deny at specific colleges).

• Not publicly accessible — requires authenticated school login.

• Data threshold: scattergrams shown only if HS has 5+ applicants to that college.

• Academic researchers have obtained access for studies (see Mulhern paper above).

Journalism Sources

Harvard Crimson Feeder School Investigation (2024) — Most Detailed Source

• Interactive: "Most Schools Dream of Sending Students to Harvard. These 21 Expect To."

• Data Widget

• Analysis Article

• Methodology: Analyzed Freshman Register data for 15 matriculated classes (2009-2024).

• Key data points:

• 21 schools sent 2,200+ students to Harvard over 15 years

• 1 in 11 accepted students comes from these 21 schools

• Top feeders (100+ students each, 2009-2024): Boston Latin, Phillips Academy Andover, Stuyvesant, Phillips Exeter

• 5% of freshmen come from just 7 schools: Boston Latin, Phillips Andover, Stuyvesant, Noble & Greenough, Phillips Exeter, Trinity (NYC), Lexington HS

• Of 21 schools: 12 private (avg tuition ~$64K), 9 public (4 selective magnet, 4 affluent suburban, 1 local)

• Private school students = ~25-30% of Ivy undergrad classes (25.5% Harvard, 27% Princeton, 32.4% Brown, 37.9% Cornell)

Harvard Crimson (2013) — Historical Feeder Analysis

• "The Making of a Harvard Feeder School"

• Earlier analysis of historical feeder patterns and the institutional relationships behind them.

Prep Review — Multi-University Feeder Rankings

• Harvard Feeders | Yale Feeders | Princeton Feeders | MIT Feeders

• Methodology: Top 30 feeder schools per university, ranked by % of graduates matriculating to that university over past 5 years.

• Eligibility: College-prep schools with grade 12/PG, minimum 40-student average graduating class.

• Provides per-university feeder rankings — useful for cross-referencing patterns.

Chicardgo School — LA Private School Elite College Placement Index

• LA Private School Rankings

• Blog/Methodology

• Uses proprietary Elite College Placement Index (LA-ECPI) based on matriculation to T25 National and T15 Liberal Arts colleges (70% weighting).

• Top LA schools: Harvard-Westlake (50% elite placement), Polytechnic (40%), Marlborough (40%).

• Data modeled from publicly available school profiles and matriculation lists.

Crimson Education / Rise

• "Will Attending A Private High School Boost Your Chances of Ivy League Admission?"

• Compiled data showing private school students are 2x as likely to be admitted as comparable public school students.

NPR (2023)

• "Affirmative Action for Rich Kids" — Coverage of Chetty/Deming findings on wealth-based admissions advantages.

Most Useful for Simulation

Tier 1: Directly Usable Data

Tier 2: Contextual / Calibration Data

Tier 3: Restricted but Valuable

Recommended Approach for the Simulation

1. Use Harvard Crimson 2024 data to define feeder school archetypes: elite boarding (Exeter, Andover), selective magnet (Stuyvesant, Boston Latin, TJHSST), affluent suburban (Lexington, Scarsdale, Brookline), elite day school (Noble & Greenough, Trinity).

2. Use Prep Review to cross-reference feeder patterns across HYPSM — some schools are Harvard feeders but not MIT feeders, etc.

3. Use Chetty/Arcidiacono papers to calibrate the private-school advantage multiplier: private school students ~2x admission probability at comparable test scores, driven by non-academic ratings + legacy + athletics.

4. Use CDE CGR data to set realistic college-going rate baselines for different school types (affluent suburban ~90%+, average public ~65%, low-income ~40%).

5. Use Opportunity Insights data to calibrate income-to-enrollment relationships: top-1% families produce 77x the Ivy-Plus enrollment of bottom-20% families.

6. Derive feeder school parameters: For the simulation's 20 high schools, map each to an archetype with calibrated feeder rates:

7. Elite boarding school: ~15-20% of grads to HYPSM, ~40-50% to T20

8. Selective magnet: ~8-12% to HYPSM, ~30-40% to T20

9. Affluent suburban: ~5-8% to HYPSM, ~20-30% to T20

10. Average public: ~0.5-1% to HYPSM, ~5-10% to T20

11. Under-resourced public: ~0.1% to HYPSM, ~2-5% to T20